Our Performance

Historical errors on the top collections on both Solana and Ethereum

We report our test set error rates (i.e., the most recent 25% of data that we do not fit nor overfit hyperparameters to) to provide the best estimate of how accurate our price estimates are going forward.

We encourage the community to hold us to our error rates and to benchmark us with future price estimates we generate.

ARE vs MRE

We report both (average relative error) ARE and (median relative error) MRE so that we can be compared to other price estimate APIs, but we argue that ARE is a less gameable metric compared to MRE.

Both metrics measure how well we do across many historical price estimates. We compare historical sales transaction prices with the price estimate we could have issued immediately before. We then take the absolute relative error across all these sales transactions.

The lower the ARE/MRE, the better the price estimates.

For example, if a sales transaction for DeGods #7388 occurred at 12:30PM for 10 SOL, and our most recent price estimate was at 12:15PM for 9.8 SOL, then our relative error would be 2%.

ARE takes the mean/average across all relative errors. MRE takes the median instead. MRE is gameable because you only need to do well on 50% of all data points, and have arbitrarily large errors on the other 50%. Most collections have >50% of transactions occur near floor, so you could have quite low MRE if you just emit the floor price every time. ARE will punish you severely since your errors will be very large for above floor sales.

MRE also always tend to skew lower than ARE (errors are right heavy-tailed since it's difficult to predict well on above floor NFTs) so it's a vanity metric at best.

Relative error is also not the best metric (it is not right-sized against the variance in the sales price of the collection): but alas, it is the most intuitive for us mortals.

Solana NFT Statistics

Sorted in ascending Average Relative Error (ARE) over our test set.

CollectionContract addressAREMRE

Lfinity Flames

EWyWxSkxWHWGzxfCd9kG7zGrKTUDbZGiV6VbFJF8YfqN

3.7%

1.8%

Portals

5grvMeoBqv5ZdHq9JMy5RrxLPNAt1nzc9cpqYWFUwizz

3.7%

2.2%

Shadowy Super Coder

71ghWqucipW661X4ht61qvmc3xKQGMBGZxwSDmZrYQmf

4.3%

2.4%

Quantum Traders

7YXM2jx3psc7qTFmN25CDkjumqq8V9jcWAQwCZaK5Cws

6.9%

4.0%

Taiyo Robotics

AsbhrsY4posEBmZ8vyAooKtpvyJoWQWTqsSnnZpDmChn

7.7%

5.6%

Boryoku Dragonz

DRGNjvBvnXNiQz9dTppGk1tAsVxtJsvhEmojEfBU3ezf

8.3%

6.6%

Mindfolk

4wTTi885HkQ6awqRGQkHAdXXzE46DyqLNXtfo1uz5ub3

9.6%

6.9%

DeGods

9MynErYQ5Qi6obp4YwwdoDmXkZ1hYVtPUqYmJJ3rZ9Kn

10.3%

5.6%

Famous Fox Federation

D3XrkNZz6wx6cofot7Zohsf2KSsu2ArngNk8VqU9cTY3

10.7%

4.6%

Stone Ape Crew

7RCBr3ZQ8yhY4jHpFFo3Kmh7MnaCPi1bFuUgXUB9WURf

10.8%

7.3%

The Remnants

4WoKtYvL2XG4Rbcmux2oWKw9QxXbXCvTRm6LcHMYDmB6

11.3%

5.5%

SolGods

ALNcW6QDNf7H4iNiTM3FD16LZ4zMGyEeCYQiE1AbCoXk

11.9%

6.8%

Thugbirds

AvkbtawpmMSy571f71WsWEn41ATHg5iHw27LoYJdk8QA

12.1%

7.7%

The Suites

AQ98oUJQuTsX446cYJgEJJRTnQL4b2LiaFTp95nfa2qc

12.5%

2.8%

Catalina Whale Mixer

DvZfhaWCjA2uCWgimRm6F59vHkeXyGvEvvVQPhiqosn2

13.5%

7.4%

Solana Monkey Business

9uBX3ASjxWvNBAD1xjbVaKA74mWGZys3RGSF7DdeDD3F

15.4%

7.5%

Degen Ape Academy

9BKWqDHfHZh9j39xakYVMdr6hXmCLHH5VfCpeq2idU9L

18.3%

10.5%

Aurory

9vwYtcJsH1MskNaixcjgNBnvBDkTBhyg25umod1rgMQL

20.4%

6.7%

Galactic Geckos

FEg3mmpcrcRsVTuc2n3oghHpRvAtEJJau4KWjaPpLKcA

22.8%

8.8%

Nyan Heroes

FpDKQ92HJYXvNBjLLvejh4gvVZwR28oGoaz36GdupcPp

23.5%

7.5%

Ethereum NFT Statistics

Sorted in ascending Average Relative Error (ARE) over our test set.

CollectionContract addressAREMRE

Cool Pets NFT

0x86c10d10eca1fca9daf87a279abccabe0063f247

3.5%

2.2%

Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC)

0x60e4d786628fea6478f785a6d7e704777c86a7c6

8.6%

4.5%

Bored Ape Kennel Club (BAKC)

0xba30e5f9bb24caa003e9f2f0497ad287fdf95623

8.7%

4.9%

Cool Cats NFT

0x1a92f7381b9f03921564a437210bb9396471050c

8.9%

5.2%

3Landers

0xb4d06d46a8285f4ec79fd294f78a881799d8ced9

8.9%

5.4%

Invisible Friends

0x59468516a8259058bad1ca5f8f4bff190d30e066

10.1%

6.3%

mfers

0x79fcdef22feed20eddacbb2587640e45491b757f

10.4%

5.7%

Karafuru

0xd2f668a8461d6761115daf8aeb3cdf5f40c532c6

10.8%

6.3%

Doodles

0x8a90cab2b38dba80c64b7734e58ee1db38b8992e

10.9%

5.8%

CyberKongz

0x57a204aa1042f6e66dd7730813f4024114d74f37

11.4%

9.0%

Meebits

0x7bd29408f11d2bfc23c34f18275bbf23bb716bc7

12.4%

8.1%

Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC)

0xbc4ca0eda7647a8ab7c2061c2e118a18a936f13d

13.2%

7.7%

CrypToadz by GREMPLIN

0x1cb1a5e65610aeff2551a50f76a87a7d3fb649c6

13.2%

6.9%

CryptoPunks

0xb47e3cd837ddf8e4c57f05d70ab865de6e193bbb

13.4%

8.4%

Azuki

0xed5af388653567af2f388e6224dc7c4b3241c544

13.4%

7.6%

HAPE PRIME

0x4db1f25d3d98600140dfc18deb7515be5bd293af

13.7%

8.9%

NFT Worlds

0xbd4455da5929d5639ee098abfaa3241e9ae111af

13.8%

8.0%

World of Women

0xe785e82358879f061bc3dcac6f0444462d4b5330

14.2%

8.1%

Pudgy Penguins

0xbd3531da5cf5857e7cfaa92426877b022e612cf8

14.3%

9.1%

MekaVerse

0x9a534628b4062e123ce7ee2222ec20b86e16ca8f

15.8%

9.9%

0N1 Force

0x3bf2922f4520a8ba0c2efc3d2a1539678dad5e9d

16.6%

11.1%

Loot (for Adventurers)

0xff9c1b15b16263c61d017ee9f65c50e4ae0113d7

17.0%

9.1%

CLONE X - X TAKASHI MURAKAMI

0x49cf6f5d44e70224e2e23fdcdd2c053f30ada28b

18.0%

10.3%

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